Brazil, falling down but still fun.

Here we go then, it’s make or break time for those wanting to take part in the Abu Dhabi race for the chase for the cup for the thing.

Brazil, it’s old, it’s tired and you’ll get mugged on the way to the circuit. But it has a raw passion this place, fuelled by fans every bit as vocal as the Tifosi and as informed as the British. Except they’re all whacked up on home brew and the samba beat. It’s doesn’t stop them having a good time and cheering anything that’s loud, fast and driven with some passion though, not even the predicted rain is going to put a dampener on this party.

Brazil is all about the big long run up the hill and the start/finish straight, Its foot flat to the floor from Juncao to the Senna S.

Alonso is in the driving seat and this weekend it’s going to be all about how close to The Spaniard you can get for the final race. More than 25 points adrift after Brazil and its goodnight sweetheart welcome to the tail gunner seat.
Now Alonso lucked into the win in Korean, Vettels Redbull had the measure of the Ferrari driver and had the Redbull not spewed bits of Renault engine all down the road, would have won easily. Alonso has used all of his engines up for the year, so can’t afford to blow his last one up. If he does he’ll get a grid penalty for Abu Dhabi and that’ll make things harder.
So he doesn’t need to win here, but he can’t afford to be much lower than 4th or 5th. A Third would be great and a win fantastic. He has an 11 point lead over Webber which isn’t comfortable, but it does give him breathing space, as long as Webber doesn’t beat him with wins. I think Ferrari will aim for 3rd and not stress the engine too hard. They have to hope that Massa will be on form to play tail gunner for Alonso.

Webber had a hard time of it in Korea with a school boy error into the wall in the rain. He needs to be ahead of Alonso to take the championship lead back. Something he should be able to do with his brand new engine. Realistically it’s a straight fight between these two now, but nerves, mechanical reliability and Lady Luck might yet decide this.

Hamilton is now 21 points behind Alonso and will need both the Ferrari and Redbull drivers to cock it up to stand a chance. He’s got nothing to lose so may as well just go for it and when they’re the odd Hamilton always goes for it. The hill and the first sector will suit the McLaren but the rest of the lap will see the Redbulls pull back any advantage. A win is unlikely but if it’s raining then you never know, personably I’d like to see him get a win so that the final race is more exciting.

Vettel, who is now 25 points behind Alonso, needs to win and all the other to hit trouble to stand a chance, that’s unlikely. What’s more likely is that Vettel is going to be leading and Webber will be behind him with Alonso in 3rd. THEN the question is going to be “will Vettel let Webber past to guarantee at least one championship for Redbull” place you bet.

Finally Button who is 42 points behind Alonso and whilst not mathematically out of it should not be making any plans for a big home coming bash any time soon. Oh yes he could still win the title, but he’ll need Lady luck to have an epiphany and come skipping down the road for that to happen.

Massa and Kubica are the drivers that could spoil the party here. Massa has always gone well here and despite a lack lustre season I see no reason why he shouldn’t be in the top five here. He needs to be ahead of Webber and Vettel to help Alonso out, and I suspect keep his job at Ferrari next year. Now would not be a good time to grow and pair and take the win ahead of Alonso.
Some people of my acquaintance are under the mistaken belief that Kubica is a better driver than Button ! But they are idiots and should be jeered whenever they turn up for work. If Jimmy McWrong of the Wrong people suddenly hit on the idea to use his head to nail the picture to the wrong wall, he would still be in a whole world of more right than to suggest that Kubica is better than Button.
“Oh, but it is the Reanult that has let him down with its mechanical frailty” they wail, bollocks he’s crap, get over yourselves.

Rosberg will beat him this time out. As long as Webber doesn’t hit the German again.

Mickey always used to like this place, if he can be arsed.

So really, Alonso could do with being ahead of Webber, but his engine is a bit suspect. Hamilton needs to win ahead of button and the other to not finish. Vettel and Button need a miracle. Rain could provide that. It’ll depend on where Lady Luck will be hiding from the downpour.